Archive for December, 2009

The prospects of what the future will bring has always fascinated me.  The changes in technology, finance, economy, … continue to uproot traditional practices.  these changes usually come in form of innovations, but sometimes in form of new laws, regulations,  and practices.   You must agree, the most exciting of the kinds are innovations in the technology sector.  Its hard for me to get excited about every FDA regulation that comes out (although they all effect our lives one way or another).

One of the recent innovations is the eBook reader.   A gadget that allows you to read digital copies (over 1000 ) of books (and other texts) on a device weighing less than 11 oz.    There are a few vendors now selling eBook readers.  Each with competing features.  But this article is not about helping you buy the perfect eBook reader.  However, it is about possible ramifications this new technology will have.   Before we get too far into this, let me say that I am not knocking or praising the eBook technology or any of the vendors.  But want to explore the dynamics such a change will have on all of us.  Whether you are a consumer, publisher, printer, retailer, author, educator, student, …  the eBook technology will have a marked effect on all of us.

It’s been 570 years since Johannes Gutenberg invented the mechanical printing (according to Wikipedia) and Chinese of course were printing scrolls and books long before that.  Since that time we’ve been reading words printed on organic material.  We are about to change that.  From the time books became the main instrument of communication among masses, and not just for the elites, it has always been a physical, tangible object.  An object with character, sometimes color, and maybe smell.  There’s a certain feel to a book, experienced by the one who holds it, depending on those characteristics.  eBook digitizes the content, but the other stuff, not.   Wow, I sound like an actor from the silent movie era expressing my opinion about the “talking pictures”.

I do believe we will see more eBooks and devices on the market with more features, in the next few years.  No, I don’t think they will replace all printed material any time soon.   But more and more people are adopting this new way of consuming content.

What would this trend do to the publishing business?  there are already fights breaking out between publishers and authors about whether the authors have the right to digitize their books.   Because, not in their contract.  I guess ten years ago, lawyers didn’t thing there would be an eBook craze coming soon.  Now, all digital copies are much cheaper to purchase, at times less than half the paperback.  Even if the contract between them stipulated it could be digitized, what does the increase in sales of digital copies do to the hardcover?  Does it cannibalize the printed version?  And if it does (which I believe it certainly will) what does it do to the publisher’s balance sheet.  Since the sale of the cheaper digital copies will shrink their profits.

The effects will be felt more by some than others.  Book publishers can probably adapt, as every entity in history has, and as Darwin has suggested, in order to survive.  But how about the printers?  I don’t expect a small or mid-size printing business that’s been operating for years, sell off their printing presses and start digitizing manuscripts.

Perhaps it is greener to produce digitized content than to print on paper.  Although some may argue that the total carbon foot print on production and distribution of an eBook may be more than printing it.

What about the education?   Text books are another obvious choice for replacement with eBook readers.  With technology adoption gap between the educators and the students (I am generalizing here)  I wonder how successful that would be.  I recently spoke with a school principal about this.  Their response was that it would not be likely to happen anytime soon.  The reason was not what I had expected.  Reason given was, there are strong printing business ties with the education establishment.  People’s livelihood is at stakes.  However, I don’t believe the ramifications stops there.  The domino effect continues into areas hard to imagine.

We humans are interesting creatures.  We seem to constantly change our environment for the promise of happier, easier, and more convenient living.   But not always know the ramifications, we then latter deal with results of changes we have made to our  environment.